soybean field

USSEC is Enthusiastic as Soy Exports Reach Record Highs

USSEC stakeholders should be reassured by yesterday’s release of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s final figures for the 2013/2014 marketing year.
During the 2013/2014 marketing year, the United States exported over 2 billion bushels of U.S. soy, valued at more than $30 billion.
The year got off to a quick start, exceeding the predicted export numbers in early 2014 and finishing strong with record-size crops starting to come out of the fields.  According to the USDA, the 2013/2014 export total includes more than 1.6 billion bushels of whole U.S. soybeans, soybean meal from 484 million bushels of U.S. soybeans and soybean oil from 161 million bushels.  This total represents 62 percent of U.S. soybean production from last year.
Top buyers of whole U.S. soybeans in 2013/2014 include:

  • China: 1.013 billion bushels
  • Mexico: 124 million bushels
  • Indonesia: 75 million bushels

Top buyers of U.S. soybean meal in 2014 include:

  • Mexico: meal from 68 million bushels of U.S. soybeans
  • Philippines: meal from 59 million bushels
  • Canada: meal from 45 million bushels

Top buyers of U.S. soybean oil in 2014 include:

  • Mexico: oil from 36 million bushels of U.S. soybeans
  • China: oil from 35 million bushels
  • Dominican Republic: oil from 22 million bushels

USSEC CEO Jim Sutter believes that strong demand could prevent end of year stox of soybeans to grow to the very large levels predicted earlier by USDA.  Strong demand seems to be taking off the heavy supply being harvested.
Prior to harvest, grain marketing experts projected soybean prices could slip to $8.50 per bushel or lower after several years of consistent double-digit values. Yesterday’s U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report pegged the nation’s soybean crop at nearly 3.96 billion bushels, 31 million bushels higher than the October forecast. The increase, however, was almost entirely offset by higher soybean export and crush projections.
Sutter said strong demand in markets around the world seems to be keeping stox from building up and really weighing on the market.  Sutter states, “We hear from our team around the world that customers of U.S. Soy everywhere are enjoying good margins in their businesses given the lower flat prices for U.S. Soy and other feed ingredients.  This translates into good crush margins and strong demand for the U.S. beans that have recently been harvested.  It is great to hear livestock producers around the world talking about profits and expanding their businesses – this is welcome news after a couple difficult years for that industry.  I’m optimistic that strong demand will consume the record crop faster than expected which could prevent the carryout from getting as large as has been predicted.”
“China continues to be a solid buyer of whole U.S. soybeans and Mexico and the Philippines have stepped up their soybean meal purchases, which is really important for us.”  He continued, “As we near the end of harvest, production numbers shouldn’t change a whole lot.  There’s good demand at these price levels and buyer confidence should continue to increase.”